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section  II.   H E A D L I N E S

2025jan31    Soft landing “Yea !” BUT issue is prices     2025mar29      

Inflation has cooled substantially since peaking in the summer of 2022, and that progress continued through 2024 to the point where an elusive “soft landing”— price stability without having the economy tank into a recession — remained achievable as Joe Biden wrapped up his presidency.  https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/31/economy/us-pce-inflation-consumer-spending-december/index.html

No matter what some people will tell you, tariffs are, in fact, taxes. When you combine the potential tariff rates that the Trump administration could impose on us, the consumer, with the inflation that raged out of control coming out of the pandemic, it feels like things have gotten away from us.    Take a look at a recent report from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. It estimates that under President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, the effective tariff rate will be 8% in 2025. That’s so high that it would go off the page if you were charting tariff rates over the last 55 years.        The issue is that prices have already gotten much more expensive over the last five years because of heightened inflation. The cumulative inflation rate during that period, according to the Consumer Price Index, has been over 23%.    We haven’t had a higher five-year inflation rate in over 30 years. The median five-year inflation rate since the late 1940s is only a bit more than 14%.    To say with the grocery store comparison, the price of an average chicken is now over $2 more expensive than it was in February 2020. The price of a loaf of white bread is $0.50 more expensive. A pound of ground beef is over $1.50 more expensive.  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/174319932680379ccdba37d2f/raw?utm_source=cnn_What+Matters+for+March+28%2C+2025&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=pM2vO%2Bz8XKTi1wmERy3cQFi4U5T1zGGPudJIBV3yNtkHa8gx6IulKSfBSBO7f95g&bt_ts=1743199326805

2024oct09  2024aug22    Soft landing continued        

Consumer spending and overall economic growth have held up in the face of high interest rates, which are meant to cool demand and eventually weigh down inflation. But the job market is beginning to weaken. Revisions released this week showed that employers hired fewer workers in 2023 and early 2024 than was previously reported. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, up from 4.1 percent in June and 3.5 percent a year earlier. The latest jump could be a fluke — a hurricane messed with the data — but it could also be an early warning that the economy is hurtling toward the brink of a recession.    That makes this a critical moment for the Fed. Officials have held interest rates at a two-decade high of 5.3 percent for a full year. Now, as they try to secure a soft and gentle economic landing, they are preparing to take their foot off the brake. Policymakers are widely expected to begin lowering rates at their meeting in September.    Mr. Powell could use his speech to confirm that a rate cut is imminent. But most economists think that he will avoid detailing just how much and how quickly rates are likely to drop. Fed officials will receive a fresh jobs report on Sept. 6, providing a clearer idea of how the economy is shaping up before their Sept. 17-18 meeting.    Instead, Mr. Powell’s speech could underscore just how much two years have changed things. In 2022, he pledged to do what it took to lower rapid inflation. This time, he could make it clear that the Fed’s focus is now much more balanced. Central bankers want to keep inflation cooling, but with today’s price increases at much more benign levels, they are eager to avoid pummeling the labor market and economy in the process.    “This is his narrative-setting speech,” said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives. “The overall narrative is: We are going to do whatever it takes to keep this soft landing going.”  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/business/economy/jerome-powell-fed-jackson-hole.html

“If we want a soft landing, we can’t be behind the curve,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in September.     “Of course, getting the timing right at moments of transition is maybe the hardest challenge a central bank faces. It’s especially hard at a moment like this where conditions are so different from previous cycles. But knowing that labor markets tend to deteriorate quickly when they turn and that monetary policy takes time to act, it’s just not realistic to wait until problems show up,” he added.  https://thehill.com/business/4924679-fed-shrugs-off-downturn-concerns-in-latest-minutes/

2024aug23         He then added: “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/23/business/economy/fed-rates-powell-jackson-hole.html    Jobs are #1 politically.

2024aug30          The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued to gradually cool overall in June even as a “core” inflation measure held steady, likely enough evidence of progress to keep the central bank on track for a rate cut later this year but not enough to stoke speculation that it might reduce rates at its meeting next week.    The Personal Consumption Expenditures index was 2.5 percent higher in June than a year earlier, slower than May’s 2.6 percent and in line with economist expectations, fresh data released on Friday showed.    A “core” price measure that strips out food and fuel costs for a better sense of the underlying inflation trend proved slightly more stubborn. Yearly core inflation was 2.6 percent, matching its reading in May. And on a monthly basis, both measures of inflation climbed modestly.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/business/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-cooled.html

2025jan30    Vote winner, yet lowest job performance.

Gallup noted that the 47 percent Trump scored is better than the average rating during his first term, when he earned a 41 percent approval from Americans. He was the only president to not receive a job rating of 50 percent or higher during his time in office.   https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5116132-trump-approval-rating-gallup/

Trump Kicks Congress to the Curb, With Little Protest From Republicans.        The administration is showing it doesn’t view the House and Senate as equal partners. So far, Republicans, who hold both majorities, are accepting their new status.   https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/30/us/politics/trump-congress-republicans.html

2025jan30    At the height of American progress for its citizens, come the looters.

Lara Cohen, who left her post after Musk’s takeover as Twitter’s global head of marketing and partners, said in a Threads post Tuesday. “They come in, get no context, turn off everything without knowing who does what… That was a social media company. This is the country and this will hurt people beyond repair.”    On the campaign trail, Musk talked frequently about downsizing the federal government. And he played an integral part in the rollout of Tuesday’s federal government buyouts, an official told CNN, through his position leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).    And it makes sense why Trump would be on board with such a plan, said William Klepper, a professor of management at Columbia Business School. “Trump is used to being in a reality show, right? He’s used to firing people. That’s a script that he has,” Klepper said.    But one environment is not necessarily like the other.    “Government is not business,” he said. “In business, the winning formula is the one that results in providing greater value to customers than your competitors and gives you superior profitability. In government, it’s a different perspective, for the most part you (trying to) create greater value for your constituents in terms of what you’re offering them in programming and services.”    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt sidestepped a question Wednesday from CNN about Musk’s involvement in the buyout, instead saying Musk’s work at DOGE has been “incredibly productive.”    On Wednesday, Musk claimed in an X post that, “Downsizing government is the most popular issue by far!” The post referenced a Reuters/Ipsos poll that mainly shows opposition to Trump’s executive orders but says that 44% of Americans support ending government “diversity, equity and inclusion” initiatives.    The Twitter takeover playbook    The day before Musk closed his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter, which he’s re-dubbed X, he walked through the front door with a toilet. Starting within hours of his takeover the following day, Musk took something like a hacksaw to the company, moves that he said were essential to “save” the company but that caused chaos.    The billionaire laid off a majority of the company’s staff — and then had to ask dozens of workers to return.    He ordered the closure of at least one data center — and the platform experienced numerous glitches and outages in the following months.   Elon Musk’s X is worth nearly 80% less than when he bought it, Fidelity estimates    He slashed the company’s safety teams, dismantled content moderation policies and welcomed White supremacists and misinformation peddlers back to the platform — and many users and advertisers fled.    The company was sued by landlords and vendors who accused it of failing to pay up for rent or agreed upon services. And it was investigated by San Francisco city officials for putting up an illegal sign and over reports that Musk’s team had set up bedrooms in office spaces.   Those and other controversial moves by the world’s richest man — among them, using the site to boost racist conspiracy theories — have by most accounts turned what was once one of the world’s most important and influential sources of real-time information into a more toxic, less reliable and less useful place and fueled the emergence of several competing platforms. (Still, Musk and the company’s other leaders continue to refer to X as a global town square.)    And since Musk’s takeover, the company’s value has fallen by about 80%, Fidelity estimated last fall.    Still, while the takeover may have hurt Twitter employees, users, advertisers and – at least in one sense — Musk’s own pocketbook, it has also added to his own personal power. Over the summer, Musk used X to try to sway public opinion in favor of Trump. And since Trump’s reelection, Musk now has the president’s ear and an office in the White House — and he’s become tens of billions of additional dollars richer, on the back of expectations that his connection to Trump will benefit his empire of companies.    And for that reason, he may have little incentive to change his employment – and layoff – strategy in his new role at DOGE.     https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/tech/elon-musk-government-cuts-twitter-takeover/index.html        In his career, Harv has been there, done that, however in a gentler way.  Seeing what’s happening, Harv, for his future, flees to Walt Disney World, to escape the tribulation of what is happening.  What is happening is not good, thus Harv flees (looks / builds) to a better life.  And he will vote again and again for the good soul that is now a several thousand years in American history.  The looters continue to beat on and at the law, and of late have beaten the law in broad terms as Harv still sees that American-love of his elementry youth where his thought was “This American-love (constitution) is designed to perform better than religion-love - both born of and bettered by individuals.”

2025jan20    DAVOS

U.S. presidential inauguration takes place the same day as the start of the World Economic Forum here in the Swiss Alps. But it’s not just timing and frigid temperatures that link the two events. For years, the gathering at Davos has been shorthand for the prevailing political orthodoxy — an assembly of well-heeled elites and corporate power brokers who exulted in the dogmas of globalization and cloaked themselves in the bromides of a liberal age. As the stereotype went, they loved open borders (at least for big business), privileged cosmopolitan connections over national allegiance and moved hand-in-hand with a class of technocrats in the West’s political establishment that had grown steadily more distant from the voters who put them in power.        Davos bigwigs recognize the awkwardness of the moment. “We are in the middle of two orders,” Borge Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum, said during a briefing with reporters last week. The “post-Cold War” era — marked by a liberal triumphalism and an embrace of globalization that’s now in retreat — is over, Brende suggested, “and now it’s an unruly time because we don’t know what the new order will be.”     https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=598b051fae7e8a68162a1429&s=678ddaae7402a8797937efb4&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&linknum=5&linktot=73        The characteristics of the elites will shape the ‘will be’, ie, felon, liar, bully, …

the oligarchs

2025jan23         The president's comments on the oil price came after he spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday. According to Saudi State media Bin Salman pledged to invest as much as $600bn in the US over the next four years, however this figure was not mentioned in the White House statement after the call.    Despite the cordial exchange, Trump said he would be asking "the Crown Prince, who's a fantastic guy, to round it out to around $1tn".    The price of crude fell by 1% following Trump's comments.    According to David Oxley, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics these comments are in keeping with Trump's desire for lower gasoline prices.    "[It's] his clear intention to use energy as leverage over Russia to end the war in Ukraine. That said, lower oil prices will certainly not incentivise US oil producers to "drill, baby, drill" – particularly in high-cost Alaska."    "Of course, Saudi Arabia would not be guaranteed to heed a request by President Trump to expand oil production and to bring down global oil prices."    The US president's appearance via video at the World Economic Forum marked his first address to a global audience since his inauguration earlier this week.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c17ewl98kgvo

President Joe Biden’s pointed warning about the U.S. becoming an “ oligarchy ” of tech billionaires will be illustrated at Donald Trump’s inauguration, when the world’s three richest men will sit on the dais as Trump is sworn in for a second term.    Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, took an unprecedented, hands-on role in the final stretch of Trump’s campaign, spending some $200 million through a super PAC. Musk has a new role reshaping government in the upcoming administration and will be joined on the dais by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. Both men’s companies have enormous contracts with the federal government.  https://apnews.com/article/oligarchy-musk-bezos-zuckerberg-trump-biden-altman-putin-3ade224cccfb287f7fadaeac42b76e3d

Viktor Pinchuk, an influential Ukrainian oligarch who is a fixture at events on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and is keen to rally support against Russia.  https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=598b051fae7e8a68162a1429&s=67931f8d86a16346eb4e4825&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&linknum=5&linktot=59

2025jan25        World leaders, the bosses of the world's biggest companies and a sprinkling of celebrities gathered in the small Swiss mountain town of Davos for the annual World Economic Forum this week.    On the other side of the Atlantic, President Donald Trump was starting his political comeback as the new US president.    "Nothing will stand in our way", he declared, as he vowed to end America's "decline".  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5g3y6dxzgo

2025jan25       Broadly, the US is seen as a world-leading hegemon that does as it pleases and gets treated quite well, Fareed says. By haranguing other countries for discounts—most of them friends, allies and partners—Trump threatens the peaceful and prosperous international system in which the US has thrived, Fareed argues.  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/173789831553462bd3b39d8d6/raw?utm_source=cnn_Fareed%27s+Global+Briefing%2C+Jan.+26%2C+2025&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=g2V0aFWagfICHnK%2FQ6jYM4KQHUymQEXnXtv%2FhTxh2v2KFE5tE8T92VkWx3ITeRhC&bt_ts=1737898315537

2025jan05   remember Carter

The election of Democrat Jimmy Carter as President in 1976 brought a new emphasis, based on Carter’s personal ideology, to U.S. foreign policy. Carter believed that the nation’s foreign policy should reflect its highest moral principles—a definite break with the policy and practices of the Nixon Administration. In 1977, Carter said, “For too many years, we’ve been willing to adopt the flawed and erroneous principles and tactics of our adversaries, sometimes abandoning our own values for theirs. We’ve fought fire with fire, never thinking that fire is sometimes best quenched with water. This approach failed, with Vietnam the best example of its intellectual and moral poverty. But through failure we have now found our way back to our own principles and values, and we have regained our lost confidence.”    Carter refused to continue the past practice of overlooking the human rights abuses of our own allies, and was particularly tough on South Korea, Iran, Argentina, South Africa, and Rhodesia (Zimbabwe). He also ended more than 30 years of U.S. political and military support to one of Latin America’s most abusive leaders—President Somoza of Nicaragua.    Carter clearly defined the foundation of his foreign policy: “Our policy is based on an historical vision of America’s role. Our policy is derived from a larger view of global change. Our policy is rooted in our moral values, which never change. Our policy is reinforced by our material wealth and by our military power. Our policy is designed to serve mankind.”    Initially, the diplomatic initiatives of President Carter and Secretary Vance were quite successful. In 1978, the Administration completed the process begun during the Nixon Administration and normalized relations with mainland China. President Carter himself facilitated the Camp David Peace Accords between Israel and Egypt, which paved the way for new progress in the Middle East and an end to the long-running hostilities between the two sides. Carter and Vance also persuaded the Senate to consent to a treaty promising to return the Panama Canal to Panamanian control by 1999. In 1979, President Carter and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev signed a follow-on nuclear arms control agreement, known as SALT II.    Carter’s new emphasis on human rights led to a Congressional requirement for the annual submission by the Department of State of “a full and complete report” on human rights practices around the world. The first volume of the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices covered the year 1976 and was released in 1977. In less than 300 pages, the report analyzed the situation in 82 countries. In contrast, 195 individual reports were included in the volume for the year 2000, covering virtually every country in the world, and the overall report was about 6,000 pages long.   https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/carter

2024nov24       * 7:14pm * 7:24pm after hard reboot Edit Page in updated on line but the web site is not updated potentially losing that update as has happened on Sunday evening intermitantlh over the last two months MATTER not so dark — into year 87

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/how-to-chronic-homelessness-crisis-0ea33dad?mod=djemwhatsnews

2024nov23        political education divide 

… Donald Trump solidified the educational divide that has defined his era.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/15/educational-divide-american-politics-trump/?utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere_trending_now&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&location=alert

2024nov16.    Jeffries (Pelosi)  House briefing v Trump ‘mandate’

https://beta.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/house-democratic-leader-holds-news-conference/652170

2024nov13   Dark Matter

Since we can't see dark matter, how can we study it? There are two main approaches. Astronomers analyze its distribution by observing material clustering and object motion in the universe. Meanwhile, particle physicists aim to detect the fundamental particles that compose dark matter.        Back on Earth, beneath a mountain in Italy, the LNGS's XENON1Tis hunting for signs of interactions after WIMPs collide with xenon atoms.    "A new phase in the race to detect dark matter with ultra-low background massive detectors on Earth has just begun with XENON1T," project spokesperson Elena Aprile, a professor at Columbia University, said in a statement. "We are proud to be at the forefront of the race with this amazing detector, the first of its kind."    The Large Underground Xenon dark-matter experiment (LUX), seated in a gold mine in South Dakota, has also been hunting for signs of WIMP and xenon interactions. But so far, the instrument hasn't revealed the mysterious matter.   https://www.space.com/20930-dark-matter.html

2024jan17   Trump 2.0

Trump’s team is determined to get a fast start after learning the lessons of his chaotic first term, especially since the Republican monopoly on Washington power may only last two years. Swift border reforms, huge tax cuts and new incentives for oil exploration are already on deck.  https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/14/politics/trump-california-fires-analysis/index.html

2024dec16   Trump 2.0 storm clouds

America has seen this movie before. In the 2017 version, at the start of Trump’s first term as president, the GOP similarly controlled Congress and had difficulty making progress. https://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/juan-williams/5039884-trump-agenda-first-100-days/

https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/173456230001027cc573208ed/raw?utm_source=cnn_Fareed%27s+Global+Briefing%2C+Dec.+18%2C+2024&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=LEe4EDF6V0%2BBjEDlF6l7GdrpcBulq07OaxAZbya4l7KHApNY%2FtzXwqIzRh%2FBd3vb&bt_ts=1734562300014

Trump moves his entire $4 billion stake in Truth Social into his trust ahead of White House move.         Trump has also nominated several Truth Social board chairs to his administration, including professional wrestling mogul Linda McMahon as Secretary of Education, and conspiracy theorist Kash Patel as the next director of the FBI.    Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes has also been selected to chair the incoming president’s intelligence advisory board.  https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-truth-social-trust-ethics-plan-b2667959.html

Trump's shutdown gamble exposes limits of his power.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e3p3nx3kno

2024nov13   Trump 2.0

Both Rubio and Waltz are hawkish lawmakers who, on paper, aren’t wholly aligned with Trump’s “America First” brand. Their anticipated ascension spurred disquiet in some corners of Trumpworld, where many want to turn the page on an era of Republican foreign policy dominated by trigger-happy neoconservatives.    Within Republican circles, there are pronounced disagreements over a range of issues. Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have been bluntly skeptical about the need to support Ukraine’s ongoing war effort, while many Republicans in Congress are more aligned with the Biden administration’s project in buttressing NATO and Western efforts to back Kyiv. There are divisions over how and where to prioritize U.S. power, whether to view the challenge of China in principally economic or military terms, and over Trump’s protectionist zeal, which flies in the face of decades of pro-free trade Republican orthodoxy.  https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5061034831056916264/3504945360753274345

2024nov07   one Trump paragraph by New York Times

The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan describe its arc: “He overcame seemingly fatal political vulnerabilities—four criminal indictments, three expensive lawsuits, conviction on 34 felony counts, endless reckless tangents in his speeches—and transformed at least some of them into distinct advantages. How he won in 2024 came down to one essential bet: that his grievances could meld with those of the MAGA movement, and then with the Republican Party, and then with more than half the country. His mug shot became a best-selling shirt. His criminal conviction inspired $100 million in donations in one day. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destiny. ... Voters unhappy with the nation’s direction turned him into a vessel for their rage.”  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/1731013505958cac470b7e2f1/raw?utm_source=cnn_Fareed%27s+Global+Briefing%2C+Nov.+7%2C+2024&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=GXVl92XZz5wyypBnuP%2BeTQ6XJyfT3djdDO%2BGryIwXqvswkqP7m3SEFBIILKALe3s&bt_ts=1731013505961

2024nov07   Biden: “Trust the [talk] process” [but he didn’t step aside — a Dem plight] 

2024nov09     Mr. Hur, appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate Joe Biden’s mishandling of classified material, recommended that the 81-year-old president not face charges, partly because a jury could reasonably conclude that he’s “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” That assessment was based on Mr. Biden’s frequent forgetfulness and hazy answers during five hours of interviews with prosecutors.         It’s now acknowledged almost universally that Mr. Biden should not have sought a second term, but the Democratic establishment [the Dem plight] denied the obvious and propped him up politically, even as evidence of his decline mounted.     https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/08/democrats-lost-credibility-harris-biden/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3f979ba%2F672f8e61f4ba5a5e73fc43d5%2F598b051fae7e8a68162a1429%2F28%2F49%2F672f8e61f4ba5a5e73fc43d5 

2024nov07   personality trumped policy  

CULTURE:  How personality trumped policy in this media election cycle.    November 6, 2024 • President-elect Trump has excelled at creating his own media image, from his earliest days as a real estate baron. His supporters find him entertaining and feisty, and even critics find it difficult not to talk about him.  https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5182270/donald-trump-president-entertainment

2024nov04   Democrats can’t nix Trump

The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all faced electoral setbacks or lost power. Mr. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.    Nearly everywhere, high prices and the fallout from the pandemic left voters angry and resentful. It discredited ruling parties — and many of them weren’t especially popular at the outset.    In the United States, post-pandemic disillusionment and frustration took a toll on Democrats. The party championed a tough response to the virus, including mask and vaccine mandates, school closures and lockdowns. It had backed the Black Lives Matter movement, argued for a more liberal border policy, sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and spent trillions on stimulus. As the pandemic ended, all of this quickly became a liability.    More than at any time over the last 16 years, Democrats are playing defense on the issues. They’ve moved to the right on immigration, energy and crime. They de-emphasized the traditional liberal push to expand the society safety net, which was eclipsed by the urgency to reduce prices.    Whatever the outcome, a long period of liberal ascendancy in American politics might be waning.    Democrats won the popular vote in four straight presidential elections. When they held full control of government, they enacted the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank and the CHIPS Act; they saved the auto industry and spent billions on renewable energy, infrastructure and more.    Over just the last few years, all of this liberal energy suddenly seemed to vanish. The backlash against pandemic restrictions and the woke left gradually went mainstream, and even divided liberal institutions. Trust in the media, “experts” and scientists plunged. Younger Americans took to social media — perhaps with the help of algorithmic changes — to vent their frustrations with an aging president, high prices, lost opportunity and anger at a system that wasn’t working for them.    At the same time, the events that followed the pandemic took a serious toll on the case for liberalism, whatever the precise merits of the arguments. Inflation and high interest rates could be blamed on high government spending stimulating excessive demand. High gas prices could be blamed on suspending drilling permits and the termination of the Keystone pipeline project. A surge of migrants could be blamed on the administration’s looser border policy, which became politically untenable; homelessness, crime and disorder made the case for “law and order.”    On issue after issue, Democrats have responded by moving to the right. Most obviously, Ms. Harris had to back away from positions she took when the progressive cultural ascendancy was near its peak in 2019 — a ban on fracking, Medicare for all and so on. But the Democratic shift isn’t simply about backing away from positions taken during a Democratic primary. Across the board, Democrats have de-emphasized policies they preached with confidence to a general electorate only a few years ago.    This rightward shift is evident in party identification as well. This year, high-quality polls found that the nearly two-decade-long Democratic advantage in party identification evaporated or even reversed. This year, the biggest names in political polling — Pew Research, Gallup, NBC/WSJ, Times/Siena, and so on — have all found the Republicans edging ahead of the Democrats for the first time since 2004, if ever.        If it weren’t for Mr. Trump’s liabilities, it’s easy to imagine how Republicans could have won decisively in the manner of a “change” election, like in 1980 or 2008, when American politics lurched left or right with lasting consequences. Mr. Trump might still do so, but clearly his challenges will make it harder in important ways.         If Mr. Trump wins, this will be the likeliest explanation, rather than his own political popularity. After a period of Democratic predominance, the upheaval during and after the pandemic, along with the response, left too many voters disillusioned with Democrats, and unwilling to give the party another chance — despite their serious reservations about Mr. Trump.    If he loses, the explanation will be equally simple: It was his own conduct on Jan. 6 and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe that cost him a winnable election. In that event, a Harris victory still might not augur well for the hopes of progressives. Oddly, it is easiest to imagine a reinvigorated liberalism if Mr. Trump wins the presidency, and refuels the tank of anti-Trump fervor once more.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/upshot/democrats-trump-election.html

Trump works to control the media — Musk, Bezos, …

Mr. Musk bought X, then known as Twitter, for $44 billion in 2022, vowing to make it a public town square. He swiftly became the most powerful super-user on the site.    Mr. Musk overtook former President Barack Obama in March 2023 to become the most-followed person on the platform, with 133 million followers. Since then, his count has risen 52 percent.    Mr. Obama’s following, in contrast, has decreased slightly, by about two million, to just over 131 million followers. (Bot accounts exist on X and may be a factor in some of the tallies.)  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/technology/elon-musk-x-election.html

2024nov01       I-SELF IS ALONE — plan on it

Voyager 1, which launched in 1977, ventured into interstellar space in 2012, becoming the first spacecraft to cross the boundary of our solar system. Its time in deep space has taken a toll on its instruments and caused an increasing number of technical issues. Earlier this year, the team had to fix a separate communications glitch that was causing the spacecraft to transmit gibberish.    While spacecraft's advanced age and distance from Earth [After sending instructions to Voyager 1 on Oct. 16, the team expected to receive data back from the spacecraft within a couple of days; it normally takes about 23 hours for a command to travel more than 15 billion miles (24 billion kilometers) to reach the spacecraft in interstellar space, and then another 23 hours for the flight team on Earth to receive a signal back.] can make maintenance challenging, Voyager 1 continues to return vital data from beyond the solar system.  https://www.space.com/space-exploration/missions/voyager-1-spacecraft-phones-home-with-transmitter-that-hasnt-been-used-since-1981?utm_term=2A6CF76F-CCFC-4561-9190-9AEC1F8B1CF4&lrh=9a18118e64ac886183a1f61de74720d43b1343700b8a12e015ddf73957378e06&utm_campaign=58E4DE65-C57F-4CD3-9A5A-609994E2C5A9&utm_medium=email&utm_content=B0D4DAD1-DAA3-4E5C-8A86-71545CA77862&utm_source=SmartBrief

2024nov01.    TOGETHER America IS great

The S&P 500, the gold-standard market index of 500 US stocks, has posted a compound annual growth rate of 14.1% from Biden’s November 2020 election through Thursday’s closing bell, according to veteran market strategist Sam Stovall of CFRA Research.    The market returns under Biden are the second best in modern history going back to 1945, Stovall found. The only stronger performance was during the booming dotcom days under former President Bill Clinton during the 1990s.    The findings are surprising given the relatively low marks Americans give Biden on the economy and how the issue remains a challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris, who Biden tapped to succeed him.    Yet the Biden-era gains reflect the US economy’s relentless rebound from the pandemic, the historic period of low unemployment and the artificial intelligence gold rush on Wall Street. “Biden benefited from the tech-fueled recovery following the shallow and swift bear markets of 2020 and 2022,” Stovall said.    But the market also boomed under Trump.    The S&P 500 enjoyed a compound annual growth rate of 12.1% from Trump’s surprise election in November 2016 through Biden’s 2020 victory, according to CFRA. That’s the third best performance in modern history, behind only Clinton and Biden.    “The Trump market was so strong because of a combination of very low inflation, very low interest rates and tax cuts,” said Stovall.    Another way to measure presidential market performance would be to start from the moment they are sworn in. By that metric, the S&P 500’s growth rate of 14.1% under Trump is second all-time, just ahead of 13.8% under Barack Obama and well ahead of the 10.3% under Biden.    However, Stovall said it makes more sense to start the clock at Election Day because that’s when markets start pricing in policy changes.    For instance, US stocks surged after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 in a red wave that gave Republicans control of Congress. Wall Street immediately started betting that Trump would be able to enact his agenda, especially massive tax cuts that would juice corporate profits.    “Investors are anticipators. They don’t wait for the actuality,” Stovall said.    History shows that the market tends to rise no matter which party is in power. However, contrary to popular belief that Republican presidents are better for the economy and the market, Democrats have enjoyed stronger market gains and faster economic growth.    The S&P 500’s growth rate under Democrats is 10% compared with 6.7% under Republicans, according to CFRA. Gross domestic product has averaged 3.9% under Democratic presidents, well ahead of the 2.4% under Republicans.    “Whether it is by coincidence or causation, historical evidence suggests that the market and economy perform better under Democratic presidential leadership,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients earlier this week.    All Democratic presidents have enjoyed a rising stock market during their time in office, led by the 16.5% compound annual growth rate under Clinton.    Two Republicans presided over market downturns: Richard M. Nixon (-4.1% compound annual growth rate) and George W. Bush. Bush ranked last among the 14 presidents since 1945.    Part of that disparity could have to do with which presidents had recession occur during their terms.    Before early 2020, Trump was on track to be the first Republican president since 1945 to avoid a recession. But then Covid-19 crashed the economy, causing unemployment to skyrocket and GDP to crash.    By contrast, none of the Democratic presidents since 1945 have had a recession occur during their terms, according to CFRA.    Bush inherited the bursting of the dotcom bubble, which helped start a recession just a few months after he took office. Bush was also in office during the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession.    “Republican presidents – specifically Richard Nixon and George W. Bush – have had the misfortune of presiding over periods of economic deterioration rather than economic prosperity, leading to lower market returns,” Belski wrote.    Of course, the composition of Congress plays a huge role in how much of a president’s campaign promises can become reality. When the opposing party controls Congress, there is a natural check on the White House that often prevents presidents from enacting controversial legislation.    Investors know this and there’s even an old market mantra that “gridlock is good” because it prevents Washington from meddling too much with the economy.    Indeed, Stovall found that the best market performance historically has occurred under a Democratic president with a split Congress. In those six years since 1945, where such a dynamic has been in place, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a sizzling growth rate of 16.8%.    Market returns have been weakest when there is a Republican president with a Democratic Congress.    Still, markets performed well  in the past when there is unified government, with one party controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress.    And gridlock comes with risks because it can paralyze Congress on must-pass legislation such as the debt ceiling. It can also complicate and slow down rescue packages during times of crisis.     One risk investors have been mulling this year is that some or all of the 2017 tax cuts are allowed to expire in 2025, causing rates to surge.    Trump has vowed to fully extend his signature tax law, but Democrats in Congress and Harris have called for rolling some of it back.        https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/01/investing/stock-market-biden-trump-democrats-republicans/index.html

2024oct23    BRICS  

Countries like Brazil and India may subscribe to the overarching philosophy of the BRICS as an institution that can help shape the new “multipolar” world in an age of waning U.S. and Western influence, but they are not interested in subscribing to an anti-Western alliance. Both were originally skeptical of China and Russia’s push to expand the bloc, seeing it as an implicit attempt to dilute their own clout. Some analysts in both countries argue they may be better off quitting the enterprise all together.    “For us, the United States is by far the most important partner in terms of our future growth and technologies and access to technologies, and therefore, we don’t want a situation where BRICS become the focal point of conflict with the West on the economic political fronts,” Kanwal Sibal, former foreign secretary in India and former ambassador to Russia, told my colleagues in an interview.    “So while we are in there, we would like to have more cooperation within BRICS and work on a positive agenda for the form of the international system in a cooperative mode, rather than in a confrontational mode,” Sibal said. “Otherwise the BRICS will move in a direction which would become pronouncedly anti-Western.”            Yet the grouping is still weaker than the sum of its parts. Much divides its major players, from the political systems of their governments to their geographies to their geopolitical and economic interests. They differ in principle and approach on hot-button global issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and are not wholly aligned on some of the broader ambitions floated by leaders in the bloc, including weaning international trade off its dependence on the U.S. dollar and blunting the unique threat posed by U.S. sanctions.        “For all its flaws and checkered actors, the growing BRICS is among the many necessary correctives to an out-of-balance world,” wrote Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute think tank in Washington. “It cannot replace a flailing U.N. system. But the persistence and growth of BRICS demonstrates that, while fragmentation may dominate today’s headlines, the impulse for collective action, however uneven and fitful, remains very much alive.”    More the reason why, Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel argued in Foreign Affairs, the United States and other Western powers should take the bloc more seriously — and work to redress some of its grievances. “Wealthy countries can also be better problem solvers for poorer countries, including by sharing technology and assisting with the green transition,” they wrote. “And the West should make more genuine efforts to democratize the global order, such as by doing away with the anachronistic tradition that only Europeans head the IMF and only U.S. citizens lead the World Bank.”  https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=598b051fae7e8a68162a1429&s=671875f21ceebe328c190657&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_todayworld&utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&linknum=5&linktot=56

2024oct04    who uses public libraries  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/04/who-uses-libraries/

2024oct04    Israel unleashed  

While personally committed to supporting Israel’s goal of obliterating Hamas, Biden had repeatedly stressed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the need to adhere to international norms requiring protection of civilians and provision of humanitarian aid — guidelines that Israel had just as often shown itself unable or unwilling to follow.    Biden’s overriding concern was preventing an all-out conflagration in the region. Yet as he sought a path for long-term peace and stability for Israel, Biden was undermined at every turn by Netanyahu’s conduct of the Gaza war, his refusal to consider establishment of a Palestinian state, and the territorial ambitions of his right-wing government in the occupied territories.    Lebanon-based Hezbollah, a far more formidable foe than Hamas, had already joined the fight, along with other Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.    This account of how Biden and his team have navigated the most serious Middle East crisis in decades — focused on key moments that illustrate the dramatic ups and downs of the past 12 months — is drawn from interviews with more than a dozen senior U.S. and Israeli officials, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk about sensitive diplomacy and decision-making.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/10/03/biden-israel-gaza-war-middle-east-crisis/?utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere_trending_now&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&location=alert

2024sep30    aging population and economic distress  

Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.    That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending.        The big reasons for this dramatic growth: A much larger share of Americans are seniors, and their healthcare costs have risen. At the same time, many communities have suffered from economic decline because of challenges including the loss of manufacturing, leaving government money as a larger share of people’s income in such places.        … more than 44% of Michiganders live in counties that are significantly reliant on the government programs. In Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, more than a third of the populations live in such counties.

  https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/americans-government-aid-social-security-medicare-unemployment-34e92b19?mod=hp_lead_pos7

2024sep29    rethink Russia strategy 

The Helsinki report’s recommendations are that Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling “cannot simply be dismissed” but that the solution to this brinkmanship is to address it with “sound reasoning.”     “We can’t let fear dominate how we think about this kind of stuff,” the congressional aide explained about the report’s recommendations — calling for laying out a plan to address and respond to possible nuclear threats and attacks.    The report wants to shift Washington’s thinking away from viewing Russia as a superpower and near-peer of the U.S. just because it holds nuclear weapons.    And overall, the report argues for a U.S. that is fully engaged with allies across the world, in particular those countries on the front lines of Russian efforts at aggression, manipulation and coercion — an argument that pushes back against growing trends of isolationism, particularly in the GOP.    This includes calls for increased military support, economic investment, development support and focus on soft power such as education and people-to-people exchanges. The U.S. should have a long-term strategy to support democratic governance and rule of law in countries vulnerable to threats from Russia, the report states.    “Through persistent efforts geared towards fostering prosperity and democracy and countering Russia’s authoritarian influence, we can minimize Russia’s ability to threaten free societies,” the report states.     “This report will provide a roadmap for minimizing and containing Russia’s destructive behavior until the emergence of internal forces necessary to fundamentally change Russia emerge.”   https://thehill.com/policy/international/4904188-us-russia-relations-helsinki-report/                                                                          

2024sep28    immigration boosts US economy

The number of encounters is not a count of individuals who stay in the US as some migrants will be returned and the same person can be recorded trying to enter multiple times.    These figures don't include people who may have crossed the border undetected.    The US Department of Homeland Security has estimated there were 11 million illegal migrants living in the US as of January 2022.    It says about a fifth of them arrived in 2010 or later but the majority arrived before this time, some as early as the 1980s.   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jp4xqx2z3o

2024sep27    Personal Consumption Expenditures cools in August

Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed by 2.2 percent from a year earlier, data released Friday showed. That is down from 2.5 percent in July and slightly softer than economist forecasts. It was the slowest annual inflation reading since early 2021.    After stripping out volatile food and fuel prices for a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, a “core” price index was a bit more stubborn on an annual basis. The core measure came in at 2.7 percent, up from 2.6 percent previously and in line with what economists had expected. But comparing prices from month to month, core inflation slowed to a modest 0.1 percent in August.    Altogether, the report offers further proof that price increases are swiftly fading. Already, that has allowed the Fed to begin to lower interest rates from a more than two-decade high of 5.3 percent. After raising borrowing costs sharply and then holding them at a high level to slow the economy and weigh down inflation, officials voted last week to cut rates by a larger-than-usual half percentage point. Policymakers also signaled that more rate cuts are coming, as long as inflation continues to fade.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/business/economy/fed-inflation-pce.html

2024sep27    Israel attacks avowed threats at UN        

In a forceful address to the United Nations General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled there would be no immediate truce in his country’s rapidly escalating conflict in Lebanon, as Israeli officials said they were preparing for a potential ground incursion. He used a large portion of the speech to warn of threats by — and to threaten — Iran, suggesting that Israel has had to defend itself on fronts of conflict organized by Tehran. “There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East,” he said. Israel has increased the scope of its conflict in Lebanon over the past week, launching attacks against Hezbollah that have taken out top leaders of the militant group and led to more than 600 deaths in Lebanon, according to the country’s Health Ministry. The Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah continued to exchange fire overnight and Friday as casualties mounted.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/27/netanyahu-un-speech-israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert

2024sep26    China goes green        

In the Financial Times, Edward White notes rapid progress: “The scale and pace of the country’s transition away from fossil fuels has smashed international forecasts … In July, China hit its target of having 1,200 gigawatts of installed solar and wind capacity, enough to power hundreds of millions of homes each year, six years early. There is more to come: around two-thirds of all new solar and wind power projects under construction are happening in China. … These measures are at the heart of plans to achieve leader Xi Jinping’s dual targets for China: to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality, or net zero, by 2060. Doing so has the potential to not only transform its economy, but turbocharge its global influence.”  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/17273755536342602ab163b92/raw?utm_term=17273755536342602ab163b92&utm_source=cnn_Fareed%27s+Global+Briefing%2C+Sept.+26%2C+2024&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=htm%2FYG2O%2BiAQC5Wp%2FFwD%2Fpq8ROkShnfRfWbQXOL877rpBcM%2FPgmy5463V5IEoEN2&bt_ts=1727375553637

2024aug27    tariffs and their role in US history        

Before the Civil War, tariffs were very important as a revenue-raising device for the government. It was the main tax that the federal government levied to raise revenue, pay for national defense, to pay for other expenses for the government — for paying down the national debt, what have you.    We didn’t have an income tax at that time. We didn’t really have sales taxes. There’s something called the Whiskey Rebellion. I don’t know if you ever heard of that. So sales taxes weren’t very popular.    And so it was just very efficient to collect revenue on foreign goods coming into US ports. because there’s only about a dozen ports or so, and ships have to dock, and so it made it very easy. There were no W-2s, no cash registers, so any other tax-raising mechanism was pretty inefficient.    But of course, you could also use tariffs to protect domestic producers from foreign competition. So there’s always been a tension between allowing consumers to have access to foreign goods at low prices, taxing them to raise revenue for the government and trying to keep out those foreign goods to help out domestic producers. And that tension has played out in basically every decade of US history.    Things shifted a little bit after the Civil War, because that was a very expensive undertaking. All sorts of new taxes were introduced, mainly sales taxes and excise taxes and things of that sort. And then, of course, later on, around World War I (1918), we introduced the income tax.    After that, the revenue-raising role of tariffs was really falling off the table. It’s just really a very small portion of federal government revenue. Trump, of course, wants to revitalize that, cut income taxes and rely on tariffs because other countries will pay for it.    The second era, which is from the Civil War up to the Great Depression, we didn’t need it for revenue so much, although it still raised a lot of revenue. It’s mainly used to keep out foreign goods and protect domestic producers from foreign competition.    And then, as a result of the Great Depression, we shifted. We used trade policy, or tariffs, as a form of reciprocity, where we said, OK, our tariffs are pretty high. We’ll cut our tariffs if you cut your tariffs as well.    So that’s what led to all these trade agreements, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT, which became the WTO (World Trade Organization), NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and other free trade agreements that we’ve reached.  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/172626490990364bfe8bb9f89/raw?utm_term=172626490990364bfe8bb9f89&utm_source=cnn_What+Matters+for+September+13%2C+2024&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=2FwQSAdp5uN%2F8DmGuIWqm6x%2FwifPLwLz1RLPFJtlHVwg%2F4eWTUkze0vXFpyKxKzu&bt_ts=1726264909905

2024sep10    Ukraine attacks Moscow — 140 drones        Over 140 Ukrainian drones overnight targeted multiple Russian regions, including the capital Moscow and the surrounding areas, Russian officials reported Tuesday, in one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian soil in the 2 1/2-year war.  https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-september-10-2024-f6dfcae1dcb2b0d9c8c2da1ddbdc32ef?user_email=9a18118e64ac886183a1f61de74720d43b1343700b8a12e015ddf73957378e06&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_0910_RUW&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

2024seo02    Islamic State suicide bombs Taliban

https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-suicide-attack-kabul-97512251e817402114f07191dd3f230d?user_email=9a18118e64ac886183a1f61de74720d43b1343700b8a12e015ddf73957378e06&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Sep02_2024_12:10PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

one paragraph, Trump, grifter       

2024sep08     “I assume she’ll come in very, very aggressive, and she will try to bait him, getting very angry, and she’ll be personal and try to demean him,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. “I think, I hope, what he’ll do is be a guy who’s been a real president — while she has been kind of a semi-vice president — and a guy who knows all the world leaders, and a guy who has been through an enormous amount, and just be calm and steady and stick to the real differences.”  https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/07/trump-allies-debate-fears-00177809        A succinct debate matchup description: a real president v a semi-vice president.

2024aug30     Trump could win on various things: inflation, immigration, isolationism. But the notion that a felon and adjudicated sexual abuser who shouts barnyard obscenities and vulgar epithets at his rallies would return to the White House on the strength of his upstanding character? Well, let’s just say there are very fine people on both sides who would have trouble making that argument.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/30/trump-lowry-nytimes-win-character/        grift: intransitive verb: to acquire money or property illicitly.        illicit: adjective: not permitted : UNLAWFUL  https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/illicit        Trump’s 4000 court cases:  From the 1970s until he was elected president in 2016, Donald Trump and his businesses were involved in over 4,000 legal cases in United States federal and state courts, including battles with casino patrons, million-dollar real estate lawsuits, personal defamation lawsuits, and over 100 business tax disputes.[1] He has also been accused of sexual harassment and sexual assault,[2][3] with one accusation resulting in him being held civilly liable.[4].    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_and_business_legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump#:~:text=From%20the%201970s%20until%20he,over%20100%20business%20tax%20disputes.        In one sentence:  Trump is a felon and adjudicated sexual abuser.        Harv labels Trump a plain LIAR — in one phrase.

2024sep08     Will a strong economy keep Democrats in power? Not necessarily, Fareed says, noting the close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—and the reasons to believe right-wing populism is here to stay.    Recent state elections in Germany, where the far right soared to new heights, reminded us that discontent and anti-elite resentment still simmer in the Western world. Immigration remains an important political issue. Trump could lose in November, Fareed says, but larger forces mean right-wing populism isn’t going anywhere.  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/17257988032491cfd6984d7af/raw?utm_term=17257988032491cfd6984d7af&utm_source=cnn_Fareed%27s+Global+Briefing%2C+Sept.+8%2C+2024&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=vbN%2BJrymOM72l4GUmrAm77ySQxXlkDKxpcDfWYH%2FeEYktbfStcEsmpXNIhPvVFcO&bt_ts=1725798803252

2024aug27    US nuclear electricity is back        When Michigan mothballed the Palisades nuclear power plant in 2022, the facility looked like a perfect relic from nuclear power’s 1970s heyday. Two years later, amid surging demand for electricity and new investment in green energy, the federal government and state of Michigan are spending nearly $2 billion to reopen it and make Palisades the first decommissioned nuclear plant anywhere to be put back to work.  https://10point.cmail20.com/t/d-e-eklqjy-djydktlltk-r/

2024aug25    Harris $540M Trump $327M      Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign says it has now raised $540 million for its election battle against Republican nominee former President Donald Trump.    The campaign has had no problems getting supporters to open their wallets since President Joe Biden announced on July 21 he was ending his campaign and quickly endorsed Harris. The campaign said it saw a surge of donations during last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago where Harris and her vice presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, accepted their nominations.    “Just before Vice President Harris’ acceptance speech Thursday night, we officially crossed the $500 million mark,” campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in a memo released by the campaign on Sunday. “Immediately after her speech, we saw our best fundraising hour since launch day.”    Trump has also proven to be a formidable fundraiser, but appears to be outpaced in her month-old campaign. Trump’s campaign and its related affiliates announced earlier this month that they had raised $138.7 million in July — less than what Harris took in during her White House bid’s opening week. Trump’s campaign reported $327 million in cash on hand at the start of August.  https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-donald-trump-fundraising-43b32b26125229db182234f7ec06da14

2024sep21   https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/20/kamala-harris-fundraising-advantage-trump/

2024aug23    China ups export         https://10point.cmail20.com/t/d-e-ehugyd-djydktlltk-r/

2024aug20    which rules are naive     Zelensky Says Push Into Russia Shows the West’s Red Lines Are ‘Naïve’.        President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seized on the incursion’s success to press allies to lift a longtime restriction: the use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russia.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/20/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-incursion-zelensky.html        Harv — always a naif — writes his blog AND case study to identify his naiveté, and a chosen MO that deals with being a naif.         

Definitions of naif: Noun; a naive or inexperienced person.  Noun: a naive or inexperienced person … innocent, a person who lacks knowledge of evil.  Adjective; marked by or showing unaffected simplicity and lack of guile or worldly experience.  Synonyms: naive: credulous - disposed to believe on little evidence;  uninformed - not informed; lacking in knowledge or information; childlike, dewy-eyed, round-eyed, simple, wide-eyed; exhibiting childlike simplicity and credulity; credulous - showing a lack of judgment or experience; fleeceable, green, gullible; naive and easily deceived or tricked; ingenuous, innocent; lacking in sophistication or worldliness; simple-minded; lacking subtlety and insight; unsophisticated, unworldly; not wise in the ways of the world; unworldly; not concerned with the temporal world or swayed by mundane considerations.  https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/naif#:~:text=synonyms%3A%20naive%20credulous,eyed%2C%20simple%2C%20wide%2Deyed    

2024aug30     Other analysts are more skeptical about what Ukraine will gain with added deep strike abilities. In an essay in Foreign Affairs, Stephen Biddle pointed to the limited strategic efficacy of such measures. “Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, if anything, have hardened the Ukrainian will to fight,” he wrote. “In Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, too, strategic bombing failed to induce concessions; it took synchronized combinations of air and ground combat to secure Western war aims.”    “The Kursk incursion has humiliated Russia’s military and demonstrated Ukraine’s resilience, but has not altered the fundamental situation in a long, grinding war of attrition,” wrote my colleague Robyn Dixon. “Ukraine is under increasing pressure to negotiate a deal potentially giving up land for peace, after last summer’s failed counteroffensive, problems with personnel, doubts about future Western weapons deliveries, and fears that if Donald Trump becomes president, he will force a peace deal favorable to Russia.”  https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=598b051fae7e8a68162a1429&s=66d145108ac0d63360b712c4&linknum=2&linktot=63

2024aug20    Biden’s gone          President Biden got a hero’s welcome on the first night of the Democratic National Convention as he passed the torch to Vice President Harris. “I made a lot of mistakes in my career, but I gave my best to you for 50 years,” Biden told the cheering Chicago crowd that gave him a five-minute standing ovation.  https://view.nl.npr.org/?qs=0bc7985551e9d1fa5e4e8a06341d06205ff160e2b54e26581d69e8a0c0cd8eea838c49dbffd5899988c3fd73baa4c5d8df8c2e9d0e4206946a620a4843dcc861dbff6ebd57cfd89327b09cf58f85d7df578456c37f9bcc9e

2024aug18    Manchin’s moderate middle          I’m trying to make people explain. They come to me, and I said, “Do you understand that only 23 percent of Americans are Democrats, only 25 percent are Republicans and 51 percent are, like me, no party affiliation?” I said, “You can’t win without the middle. Why are you continually throwing meat at the extremes? They’re fine. They’re well fed. But you’re not going to win that way.” It just doesn’t make any sense to me at all that you can’t find that moderate middle, to where people say, “Yeah, that’s how I live my life. That’s what I expect you to do.” And it’s not exciting. You expect us to do the right thing. When someone talks common sense, no one gets excited. No one sends money at the fund-raisers. But if you say something stupid and crazy, I guarantee you you’ll be flooded.  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/18/opinion/joe-manchin-kamala-harris.html 

The Democratic convention presents Fox News Channel with a delicate challenge: how to cover a party suddenly enthused about its election chances when much of the network’s audience has a different political viewpoint.    During the Democrats’ first two days, Fox personalities called the proceedings “boring” and filled with “a lot of hate.” There was a focus on demonstrations outside the arena while many of the speakers inside went unheard on the air. Presidential nominee Kamala Harris was given nicknames like “the princess” and “comrade Kamala.”    “We’re at the DNC,” Sean Hannity quipped, “so you don’t have to be.”    Fox’s telecast illustrated the challenges inherent in covering news events on networks that are filled with both breaking news and partisan political talk, sometimes mashed up — where opinion personalities like Hannity, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow and CNN’s Van Jones freely mix with reporters and blur boundaries. During the GOP convention last month, the liberal-leaning MSNBC cut off Nikki Haley in favor of a discussion about how she debased herself, and ignored Ron DeSantis entirely.  https://apnews.com/article/democrats-fox-harris-trump-33db0a7ffb9b1c14236fd799d4196331

2024aug17.    Russia’s first invasion since WWII          Behind Ukraine’s Russia invasion, there was secrecy, speed and electronic jamming.       Six days after Ukrainian forces swept through the Russian border town of Sudzha in a lightning advance, a Ukrainian platoon carrying out a mopping-up operation stumbled upon a dozen Russian soldiers hiding in a butter factory.    The platoon leader, who goes by the call sign Yanyk, said his demand for the Russians to surrender was met by salvos of automatic-rifle fire. “So we eliminated them,” he said.    The speed and scale of this month’s Ukrainian advance—the first time a foreign military force has occupied Russian soil since World War II—left pockets of surprised and disoriented Russian soldiers trapped behind enemy lines.     Led by electronic-warfare units that jammed Russian communications and drones, units from Ukraine’s strategic reserve swarmed across the border on Aug. 6, seizing what Kyiv has described as 82 towns and villages in Russia’s Kursk region.    In all, Ukraine has taken 2,000 prisoners, according to a Ukrainian official, and seized about the same amount of territory that Russia, in grinding, high-casualty offensives, has taken from Ukraine since the start of the year.

https://www.wsj.com/world/behind-ukraines-russia-invasion-secrecy-speed-and-electronic-jamming-188fcc22?mod=hp_lead_pos5

However, as Ukraine moves further into western Russian territory, Russian forces are equally making gains in Ukraine's east and have claimed a string of villages in recent weeks.    Russia attacked at least four Ukrainian regions on Saturday, according to Ukrainian officials, including the north-eastern region of Kharkiv.    Mr Zelensky said on Saturday there had been "dozens of Russian assaults" on Ukrainian positions near the cities of Toretsk and Pokrovsk.    Pokrovsk is a vital logistics hub that sits on a main road for supplies to Ukrainian troops along the eastern front.    "Our soldiers and units are doing everything to destroy the occupier and repel the attacks," the Ukrainian president said, stressing the situation was "under control".   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c935y88vn7yo

2024aug17.    war defeats both          Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say.        for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say.         But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials. The possible agreement and planned summit have not been previously reported.    For more than a year, Russia has pounded Ukraine’s power grid with a barrage of cruise missiles and drone strikes, causing irreparable damage to power stations and rolling blackouts across the country. Meanwhile, Ukraine has struck Russia’s oil facilities with long-range drone attacks that have set ablaze refineries, depots and reservoirs, reducing Moscow’s oil refining by an estimated 15 percent and raising gas prices around the world.    Some involved in the negotiations hoped they could lead to a more comprehensive agreement to end the war, according to the officials who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomacy.    The willingness to engage in the talks signaled something of a shift for both countries, at least for a limited cease-fire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kyiv would consider a full cease-fire only if Russia first withdrew all of its troops from Ukrainian land, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine first cede four Ukrainian regions — including some territory that Russian forces aren’t occupying — that the Kremlin has declared as part of Russia.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert

2024aug16.    corporate food gouging.          But the economic argument over the issue is complicated.  Only if you want to mask the problem.  Shopper sees the corporate gouging.  The POLITICAL ARGUMENT is to go after the biggest most glaring gougers — not to mention the GENERAL corporate connection to the WEALTH GAP as a political angst.        Economists have cited a range of forces for pushing up prices in the recovery from the pandemic recession, including snarled supply chains, a sudden shift in consumer buying patterns, and the increased customer demand fueled by stimulus from the government and low rates from the Federal Reserve. Most economists say those forces are far more responsible than corporate behavior for the rise in prices in that period.    Biden administration economists have found that corporate behavior has played a role in pushing up grocery costs in recent years — but that other factors have played a much larger one.  The populous point is to go after the HIGH PROFILE CORPORATE GOUGERS.  Harris seems in that direction.

2024aug11.    reintroduce joy.          Harris and Walz reintroduce joy to Democrats their first week on the campaign trail.        It’s been a long time since Democratic voters associated politics with joy. This week, from one swing state to the next, Vice President Harris and her new running mate, Tim Walz, barnstormed joyfully, lifted by the cheers of the largest rally crowds of their campaign.    There were 12,000 supporters in Eau Claire, Wis., and also in Las Vegas; an estimated 14,000, including the overflow room, in Philadelphia; about 15,000 in Phoenix; and a similar number spilling out of an aircraft hangar at the Detroit airport where that rally took place.    The campaign has also boasted of a $36 million influx in donations in the 24 hours after Walz joined the ticket, and another $12 million-plus from a fundraiser slated for later on Sunday in San Francisco.  https://www.npr.org/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5060012/kamala-harris-tim-walz-campaign-democrats  .

………….    under de-construction below      

2024july09..   sentiments lie            https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20240709&first_send=0&instance_id=128295&isViewInBrowser=true&nl=paul-krugman&paid_regi=1&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=171681&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fe8b8d7f4-7a76-59ec-a60f-dd159a75ce97&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4

 

024july09..    Biden letter    ‘ https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24794104-president-biden-letter-to-congressional-democrats-78

2024july06.     13 presidential win causers.     Watch 6min video.    https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/presidential-historian-explains-why-dropping-biden-wont-help-democrats/3368DA73-3AA5-4ABE-B31C-03C34FBB98BA?mod=WSJvidctr_mostpopular_pos3

024july02.    Biden support    ‘Team sport,’ and Biden needs help.        Biden’s old boss, former President Barack Obama, appeared at a New York City fundraiser last Friday alongside Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the New Yorker and top Democrat in the House who Democrats would very much like to be speaker.    Obama said general elections are like a “team sport” and the president is captain, according to CNN’s report, but in this case voters should be motivated by down-ballot races.    “We need the White House, because of the enormous power of the executive branch,” Obama said. “But the critical need for us to regain the House and have Hakeem Jeffries as speaker should be sufficient motivation. And if we do our jobs on that front, that is probably the most important thing we can do for the Biden reelection campaign as well.”    The not-so-subtle implication there is that Biden will need to be propped up by other Democrats in order to win.  https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/17199577240751ddddb83a42d/raw?utm_term=17199577240751ddddb83a42d&utm_source=cnn_What+Matters+for+July+2%2C+2024+%28real+July+2%29&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=iwcEhytMPf6eHyhzec4yuJcXU5QK8ZG0cvg3gkxgkVdak951QL3vkGuqRGq6DviW&bt_ts=1719957724078

2024jun29.    Mega lines shuttle electricity 

https://10point.cmail20.com/t/d-e-eiuukjt-djydktlltk-r/

2024jun29.    post-debate advice - watch video

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted past presidential election winners based on key characteristics, says that it would be a mistake for Democrats to replace President Joe Biden in 2024 election.  https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/video/allan-lichtman-cnn-debate-democrats-call-to-replace-biden-digvid.

2024jun27.    for Harv's writer aim culmination -- a tome buds forth

https://whollyspirittome.blogspot.com/2024/06/tome-table-of-contents-publication-buds.html

2024jun20.    US polls.       https://www.harvotto.com/p/coalition-consensus.html

UNDERSTANDING-CITIZENSHIP

Remembered by Harv from his elementary education long past,

reinvented by adult 'writer' Harv within a seeming 'educational desert',

a review of fundamental principles for navigation in the seeming wilds.

(click here for Kagan book notes via news media article)

more HEADLINES:

2024may24.      immigration.    ... experts consider the asylum system to be broken and why a long-term solution will almost certainly require a new law from Congress.    The modern idea of asylum stems from World War II. It is meant to protect people fleeing political oppression — Jews during the Holocaust, dissidents from the Soviet empire, Iranians after the revolution and, in recent years, Muslim Uyghurs, Afghans, South Sudanese and Ukrainians.    But asylum has expanded far beyond its original intent. Today, many migrants claim asylum even though they are not at risk of being persecuted. They instead want to move to the U.S. — understandably enough — because it is a richer, politically freer and less violent place than much of the world.    After migrants arrive at the U.S. border and request asylum, the federal government allows many to remain in the country while their cases are considered. The process can take years, partly because the system is overwhelmed and doesn’t employ enough border agents and immigration judges to decide cases quickly.    The situation has become self-reinforcing, giving more migrants reason to come to the U.S.  

2024may24.      SCOTUS.    Justice Sonia Sotomayor, a liberal on the Supreme Court, shared at Harvard University that she sometimes cries after the court's decisions, expressing potential for more emotional moments ahead.    Sotomayor described feeling deep sadness and desperation at times without specifying the decisions that triggered her emotions.    She emphasized the importance of acknowledging and processing emotions, mentioning the need to accept, shed tears, and then move forward.  https://ground.news/article/sotomayor-admits-some-supreme-court-decisions-have-driven-her-to-tears_f36298?utm_source=smerconish-newsletter&utm_medium=email

2024may15.   inflation.     KEY POINTS         Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that inflation is falling more slowly than expected, likely keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period.        Tuesday brought a fresh round of discouraging inflation data, when the producer price index rose a higher-than-expected 0.5% in April.        “We did not expect this to be a smooth road. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected,” Powell said in Amsterdam. “What that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”           https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/powell-says-inflation-has-been-higher-than-thought-and-expects-rates-to-hold-steady.html        Harv speculates that 'others' are not patient, and they are contrarily against restrictive policy -- they are living 'unrestricted' (freeing) lifetimes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-fed/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3db9584%2F6644da6853df4a059ee699e2%2F598b051fae7e8a68162a1429%2F17%2F47%2F6644da6853df4a059ee699e2

 2024jan24.    immigration.    Happy Harv Otto (H2o) lives and prospers in the most prosperous free-world-country -- people are dying to get in.  Therefore assimilate those that merit -- take the cream of the immigration crop.  For the rest, assist as much as practical, then together, we in the US can grow more in our own merit of co-operation and constitutional conviction.        2024apr25.        US births.     3.59 million.    The number of children born in the U.S. in 2023, a 2% drop compared with 3.66 million in 2022 and the lowest number since 1979, according to provisional federal data. The U.S. fertility rate also fell last year—to 1.62 births per woman, a 2% decrease from a year earlier, the data showed. It’s a new low and a sign of years of decline.  https://10point.cmail20.com/t/d-e-ejinhy-djydktlltk-r/

2024apr23. space travel.   For the first time in five months, NASA engineers have received decipherable data from Voyager 1 after crafting a creative solution to fix a communication problem aboard humanity’s most distant spacecraft in the cosmos.    Voyager 1 is currently about 15 billion miles (24 billion kilometers) away, and at 46 years old, the probe has shown multiple quirks and signs of aging in recent years.           On March 3, the team noticed that activity from one part of the flight data system stood out from the rest of the garbled data. While the signal wasn’t in the format the Voyager team is used to seeing when the flight data system is functioning as expected, an engineer with NASA’s Deep Space Network was able to decode it.    The Deep Space Network is a system of radio antennae on Earth that help the agency communicate with the Voyager probes and other spacecraft exploring our solar system.    The decoded signal included a readout of the entire flight data system’s memory.    By investigating the readout, the team determined the cause of the issue: 3% of the flight data system’s memory is corrupted. A single chip responsible for storing part of the system’s memory, including some of the computer’s software code, isn’t working properly. While the cause of the chip’s failure is unknown, it could be worn out or may have been hit by an energetic particle from space, the team said.    The loss of the code on the chip caused Voyager 1’s science and engineering data to be unusable.    Since there was no way to repair the chip, the team opted to store the affected code from the chip elsewhere in the system’s memory. While they couldn’t pinpoint a location large enough to hold all of the code, they were able to divide the code into sections and store it in different spots within the flight data system.    “To make this plan work, they also needed to adjust those code sections to ensure, for example, that they all still function as a whole,” according to an update from NASA. “Any references to the location of that code in other parts of the (flight data system) memory needed to be updated as well.”    After determining the code necessary for packaging Voyager 1’s engineering data, engineers sent a radio signal to the probe commanding the code to a new location in the system’s memory on April 18.    Given Voyager 1’s immense distance from Earth, it takes a radio signal about 22.5 hours to reach the probe, and another 22.5 hours for a response signal from the spacecraft to reach Earth.    On April 20, the team received Voyager 1’s response indicating that the clever code modification had worked, and they could finally receive readable engineering data from the probe once more.  https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/22/world/voyager-1-communication-issue-cause-fix-scn/index.html        But, apparently, 'nothing' is out there.  We are 'alone' with our own resources.

2024apr17.    longevity | climate.     https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/climate/ocean-heat-records.html

2024apr20.    longevity | climate.     https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/upshot/carbon-dioxide-growth.html

2024may15.    .    loyalty (disloyalty).  https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/michael-cohen-donald-trump-analysis/index.html

In a key moment in the [hush money] trial, which resonated outside the courtroom given the obligations that Trump places on many of his aides and subordinates, Cohen described the moment when he broke from his former boss.    “My family, my wife, my daughter, my son all said to me, ‘Why are you holding onto this loyalty, what are you doing?’” Cohen said, adding that he came to a point when it was time to listen. “I would not lie for President Trump any longer.”        Going further in rationalization/justification of choice, many envoke God, country, rule-of-law, devil-made-me-do-it, ...

2024apr09.    Trump lies.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/09/some-trump-falsehoods-stick-more-than-others-fact-checker-poll-finds/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3d57a80%2F66156a895c61b95eb9007879%2F598b051fae7e8a68162a1429%2F17%2F53%2F66156a895c61b95eb9007879    

2024mar27.    demagogue(s).   For the second time in eight months, a top Donald Trump ally has, extraordinarily, declined to try to prove that they didn’t defame an election worker. Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake (R) has joined former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani in that distinction.        The news comes even as Trump owes more than $86 million after losing a pair of defamation cases against a woman, E. Jean Carroll, whom he has arguably continued to defame.    Throw in the $787.5 million Fox News agreed to pay a voting machine company over bogus theories that it aired bolstering Trump’s stolen-election claims and the $148 million judgment against Giuliani, and the combined bill is north of $1 billion — and potentially growing, thanks to Lake’s capitulation and other lawsuits.    The Trump political movement has long had a truth problem. That has now manifested itself as a very expensive defamation problem.    As well as anything, these defamation cases lay bare just how careless and demagogic the MAGA movement has become.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/27/trump-lake-defamation/

024mar16.    Trump's Cabinet.    Pence’s lack of an endorsement also highlights the chasm between GOP elected officials and those who actually served alongside Trump in his Cabinet. NBC News last summer reached out of 44 former Cabinet officials and found that only four of them would commit to backing Trump in what was then the early stages of the primary contest. Many have turned into strong Trump critics, like former chief of staff John F. Kelly and former defense secretaries Jim Mattis and Mark T. Esper.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/16/mike-pence-why-no-trump-endorsement/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3d17cf2%2F65f5bdbf11664804f41a3e2d%2F598b051fae7e8a68162a1429%2F10%2F45%2F65f5bdbf11664804f41a3e2d

2024mar11.    The MAGA aim is voting against this wealth gap through identity politics.  The citizens who voted for Biden generated 71% of the GDP while the citizens who voted for Trump produced 29% of the GDP.  Those 'unproductive' tear at the lifestyle culture of the 'productive', that is, the less productive are 'rural' and most have not attended college, and vote for their 'leaders' for identity politics reasons in essence is 'killing' the GDP greatness of the US -- their leaders benefit, the MAGA voters don't benefit in reality.  https://play.max.com/video/watch/415bbc52-52d9-4fc6-8dbc-d4cb8088f1e7/27043053-d14e-4059-8e60-7b40c479abfb      Enter the issue "why citizens vote against their own interests.        Whites becoming the new minoity.    Eic.

2024jan24.    immigration.    Happy Harv Otto (H2o) lives and prospers in the most prosperous free-world-country -- people are dying to get in.  Therefore assimilate those that merit -- take the cream of the immigration crop.  For the rest, assist as much as practical, then together, we in the US can grow more in our own merit of co-operation and constitutional conviction.        2024apr25.        US births.     3.59 million.    The number of children born in the U.S. in 2023, a 2% drop compared with 3.66 million in 2022 and the lowest number since 1979, according to provisional federal data. The U.S. fertility rate also fell last year—to 1.62 births per woman, a 2% decrease from a year earlier, the data showed. It’s a new low and a sign of years of decline.  https://10point.cmail20.com/t/d-e-ejinhy-djydktlltk-r/

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