Search This Blog

US economy part 2

 

Contents part 2

(in key-word terms -- search page for key-word interest)
wages
not yet fully indexed

2023sep05.   wages.   Other measure of economic recovery.  
 

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20230905&instance_id=101986&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=143807&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F4ff19a40-a440-522d-a146-0c0936281f12&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4

2023sep03.  The unexpected deficit surge, which comes amid signs of strong growth in the economy overall, is likely to shape a fierce debate on Capitol Hill about the nation’s fiscal policies as lawmakers face a potential government shutdown this fall and choices over trillions of dollars in expiring tax cuts.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/us-debt-deficit-rises-interest-rate/  

2023sep03.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/03/business/economy/strikes-union-sag-uaw.html  


2023sep01.  The labor market continued to moderate gradually, with hiring remaining steady but the unemployment rate rising, reflecting efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy.  https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/01/business/jobs-report-august-economy


2023aug30.   https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/08/30/amtrak-brightline-high-speed-rail/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most


2023aug27.   Job openings declined by 338,000 to a seasonally adjusted 8.8 million in July from the prior month, the Labor Department reported. That was the lowest level since March 2021, but it was still well above prepandemic levels. The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation by slowing the economy—including hiring and wage growth, which can fuel price pressures. Home prices held steady in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. A broad rally pushed U.S. stock indexes higher.  https://whatsnews.cmail19.com/t/d-e-vtrjuht-iudygtktd-r/ 

2023aug27.   ... the growing interest in geothermal is driven by the fact that the United States has gotten extraordinarily good at drilling since the 2000s. Innovations like horizontal drilling and magnetic sensing have pushed oil and gas production to record highs, much to the dismay of environmentalists. But these innovations can be adapted for geothermal, where drilling can make up half the cost of projects.    “Everyone knows about cost declines for wind and solar,” said Cindy Taff, who worked at Shell for 36 years before joining Sage Geosystems, a geothermal start-up in Houston. “But we also saw steep cost declines for oil and gas drilling during the shale revolution. If we can bring that to geothermal, the growth could be huge.”  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/28/climate/geothermal-energy-projects.html

2023aug27.   NBC News' review of USDA documents revealed that while there's concern over Chinese entities buying U.S. farmland, Chinese interests own less than three-hundredths of 1% of U.S. agricultural land.  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/how-much-us-farmland-china-own-rcna99274

2023aug26.   NASA is developing “quiet” supersonic aircraft, called X-59, as part of its Quesst mission. The agency hopes that the new aircraft could eventually prompt modification of these rules, clearing the way for aircraft flying between Mach 2 and Mach 4 (1,535 - 3,045 miles per hour). Concorde’s maximum speed was Mach 2.04, or 1,354 miles per hour. A jet traveling at Mach 4 could potentially make a transatlantic crossing in as little as 90 minutes.  https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/nasa-supersonic-flights-x59-scn/index.html

2023aug25.   Now there are signs that some shoppers are becoming more cautious, as Americans’ savings erode, inflation continues to bite and other factors tighten their wallets — namely, the resumption of student loan payments in October. Financial reports from retailers — including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Foot Locker and Nordstrom — that landed this week suggest a shift is underway, from consumers buying with abandon to spending more on their needs.  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/business/consumer-retail-shopping.html

2023aug21.   https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-oil-is-produced-in-the-us/?utm_source=Mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_content=aug_21  


2023aug18.   The low female labor-force participation rate 24% makes it harder for the world’s fifth largest economy India to attract Western manufacturers looking for China alternatives and stunts its GDP.  https://whatsnews.cmail19.com/t/d-e-vjhhln-iudygtktd-r/

2023aug18.   The high-flying FANG+ Index — which comprises the largest tech stocks by market capitalization, including Apple, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta — fell into correction territory yesterday. The group of Nasdaq heavyweights is down nearly 11 percent since July 18.  https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230818&instance_id=100348&nl=dealbook&productCode=DK&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=142342&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Facc999cf-32b2-50f2-8bf8-65bd349d7ad5&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4  



2023aug17.   https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/business/mortgage-rates-housing-market.html


2023aug17.   

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230817&instance_id=100252&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=142236&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F64ab795f-37ef-5a2f-9997-e5c29efab489&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4
2023aug14.   



2023aug04.  

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/10/business/cpi-inflation-fed?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230810&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=141624&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4

2023aug04.  



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/04/business/jobs-report-july-economy

2023july25.   Fitch cited “repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions” in cutting the rating to AA+. The move came two months after Washington narrowly avoided a U.S. default, following a prolonged argument over the debt ceiling. The agency also cited rising federal deficits and increased spending on Social Security and Medicare.        Paul Krugman, the Times Opinion columnist and Nobel laureate, said the move was “bizarre.” And Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary, told Bloomberg, “I can’t imagine any serious credit analyst is going to give this weight.”  https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230802&instance_id=99030&nl=dealbook&productCode=DK&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=140894&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F39b61574-1b02-5a52-981e-529ccb35039a&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4

2023july25.   Federal grants are divided into two categories: formula grants and competitive grants.    The federal government uses a blueprint to calculate formula grants for each state or locality. This formula typically considers factors such as population size, poverty rates, or specific needs of the area.    For example, federal Medicaid funds are distributed through formula grants based on the healthcare needs of each state.    On the other hand, competitive grants require state and local governments to submit proposals or applications to the federal government. These proposals outline their plans for using the grant money effectively to achieve specific goals. The government then selects the winners based on the proposals’ merits.  https://usafacts.org/articles/which-states-rely-the-most-on-federal-aid/?utm_source=Mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_content=july_24



2023july25.   Harv remembers the Japanese influence on US management practice/theory.


2023july23.   ...the factors that, for the better part of a decade, put Modelo on its triumphant track include an increasing preference among American consumers for imported, more expensive beer; a decade-old antitrust deal; and effective marketing campaigns aimed at attracting young, non-Hispanic consumers to the Mexican beer.  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/business/modelo-bud-light.html

2023july18.   “We’re so eager to get back to the economy, get back to a tight labor market with low unemployment, high labor-force participation, rising wages — all of the virtuous factors that we had as recently as last winter,” Mr. Powell said in an NPR interview in September 2020.    The Fed chair has gotten that wish. The labor market has recovered by nearly every major measure, and the employment rate for people in their most active working years has eclipsed its 2019 high, reaching a level last seen in April 2001.  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/business/economy/jerome-powell-job-market-employment.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Business

2023july17.   Although inflation has often overshadowed pay increases in the past year, that’s beginning to change: Earnings have grown faster than inflation for four straight months. Overall, average hourly wages are up 4.4 percent in the past year, compared with a 3 percent increase in prices in the same period, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


2023july17.   As the economy continues to deliver an abundance of unexpectedly good news. Congress avoided a destructive fight over the debt ceiling, inflation is clearly moderating, the labor market remains strong, the economy is still growing and the S&P 500 is up more than 17% year-to-date.    “The biggest surprise is that investors have actually not bought into the soft-landing narrative but have merely pushed back their recession expectations by a few quarters,” says Goldman Sachs' Oscar Ostlund, global head of content strategy, market analytics and data science for Goldman's Marquee digital platform for institutional clients.  https://themessenger.com/business/goldman-says-wall-street-investors-expect-recession-in-a-year

2023july12. 
2023 June inflation
 
2023jun26. 
"Soft landing so far."

2023july05. 
https://us14.campaign-archive.com/?e=6bda99e89e&u=ff1bc9abb222ec965ded81e5e&id=0b4a1bb6d5



 2023jun26. The instability pushed down the ruble, and is expected to roil commodities markets for months. European natural gas prices spiked this morning, and Brent crude is climbing. (Trading in European stocks and U.S. futures was mixed.)    “The risk of further civil unrest in Russia now must be factored into our oil analysis for the back half of the year,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in an investor note this morning. Rising commodity prices could put further pressure on central banks already struggling to rein in inflation. https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230626&instance_id=96041&nl=dealbook&productCode=DK&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=137661&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Ff824648e-43cd-5fcf-aa1e-7c87899074ed&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4
2023jun19. 



 2023jun19. During the pandemic, people who worked from home became significantly more likely to move — and more likely to do so than all other workers:







2023jun18. While the previous [global] economic orthodoxy has been partly abandoned, it is not clear what will replace it. Improvisation is the order of the day. Perhaps the only assumption that can be confidently relied on now is that the path to prosperity and policy trade-offs will become murkier. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/business/economy/global-economy-us-china.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Business
 2023jun16. The richest 1 percent of people on Earth made almost two-thirds of the new wealth created since the coronavirus pandemic began, according to a report released earlier this year by international advocacy group Oxfam. It advised governments around the world “to halve the wealth and number of billionaires between now and 2030, both by increasing taxes on the top 1 percent and adopting other billionaire-busting policies. This would bring billionaire wealth and numbers back to where they were just a decade ago in 2012.”    Such direct measures, let alone an international consensus on waging this form of de facto class warfare, are nowhere in sight. https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=598b051fae7e8a68162a1429&s=648bdf8790e29b5cbf4106b5&linknum=5&linktot=71
2023jun14. Fed interest rate projections. 

 

2023jun13. Inflation eases in May 2023 to 4%. Drops for eleventh straight month.

2023jun09. History of refuges to US. 
anti immigration push
US a country of immigrants ?

 

2023jun09. Oil by US producers.




2023jun09. Biden: Don't Bet Against U.S. Economy.       Hardworking families are reaping the rewards. Fewer Americans are behind on their mortgages or filing for bankruptcy than before the pandemic. Real income for the bottom half of earners is up by 3.4% since I took office. 
Over the past year, we helped create jobs, reduce inflation, and give working families breathing room.
2023jun08. The government is expected to borrow around $1 trillion by the end of September, according to estimates by multiple banks. That steady state of borrowing is set to pull cash from banks and other lenders into Treasury securities, draining money from the financial system and amplifying the pressure on already stressed regional lenders.    To lure investors to lend such huge amounts to the government, the Treasury faces rising interest costs. Given how many other financial assets are tied to the rate on Treasuries, higher borrowing costs for the government also raise costs for banks, companies and other borrowers, and could create a similar effect to roughly one or two quarter-point rate increases from the Federal Reserve, analysts have warned. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/07/business/economy/debt-ceiling-borrowing-binge.html
2023jun05. Crude oil and natural gas rebounded this morning after Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, announced a million-barrel-per-day production cut at this weekend’s OPEC Plus summit in an effort to boost sagging energy prices.        Analysts calculate that Brent needs to stay above $80 in order for Saudi Arabia to keep its budget balanced and to finance the ambitious infrastructure program backed by the country’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.    The long-term impact of the move isn’t clear. Goldman Sachs analysts say it could boost the price of Brent by $1 to $6 per barrel. But such a rise is unlikely to hurt consumers or turn gasoline costs into a potent political threat in the U.S., where prices at the pump are down 25 percent over the past year. https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230605&instance_id=94234&nl=dealbook&productCode=DK&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=134702&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fff8d8b28-29b4-5c06-ba16-1216d5a50abe&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4 
2023jun04. France’s economy, the eurozone’s second largest, is forecast to remain subdued until at least next year, but more worrisome to ratings agencies is the nation’s financial situation. France spent vast sums to shield households and businesses from an inflation crisis and painful pandemic lockdowns.    Its debt has surged to 111 percent of economic output, casting France into a club with Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain — the major eurozone economies holding the highest debt ratios. In Germany, which has Europe’s largest economy and is its stickler for budget discipline, the debt burden is 66 percent of economic output.
2023jun01. Ten years after it was awarded a $4.2 billion contract by NASA, the company has yet to fly any NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. And late last year, the company said it had to take another charge for the program against earnings, bringing the total to nearly $900 million in sunk costs.    Under the original contract, each company was awarded six flights each. Given the delay, SpaceX will have completed all six before Boeing flies its first.
2023may26. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.4% for the 12 months ended in April, up from a 4.2% increase seen in March, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.    The closely watched core PCE index — where volatile components of food and energy are excluded — unexpectedly ticked up: The Fed’s go-to gauge was up 4.7% for the year. In March, the core PCE gauge grew by 4.6%.        Consumer spending jumped 0.8% in April from March, double what economists had expected. Excluding the effects of inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.5%, reflecting a boost seen from new car purchases, according to the report. 
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/26/economy/pce-inflation-fed-april/index.html
2023may26. The 24 percent rise in stock price means Nvidia is now worth $939.3 billion. That’s more than Tesla and Facebook, which are worth $584.7 billion and $647.6 billion, respectively. And it sits just behind the Big Tech companies of Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon and Saudi state oil giant Saudi Aramco — the only companies more valuable [Harv sees one non US.] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/25/nvidia-ai-stock-gpu-chatbots/

2023may24. 

biggest drop is in the US
Harv notes household debt biggest drop is in the US.         

The average home price in Canada is C$716,083 ($528,000; £426,000), according to the Canada Real Estate Association, though homes in Canada's most populous city Toronto average about C$1.15m.    Home prices are the highest in Vancouver, British Columbia, where the average price tag for a property is around C$1.29m.     Both Toronto and Vancouver consistently rank among the top 10 most unaffordable cities in the world. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65688460 

2023may19. 1 in 5 Young Chinese Is Jobless, and Millions More Are About to Graduate [another 12 million].
2023may19. But [after many detail graphs] maybe we should step back and take the larger view. Covid-19 was an enormous shock to the economic system, made worse by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet we made it through the pandemic recession with remarkably little widespread hardship — in the fall of 2021, according to a Federal Reserve survey, 78 percent of Americans reported that their financial situation was at least OK, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2013. (We don’t yet have results for 2022.)    That’s a huge success story and will remain a success story even if our landing is bumpier than we’d like. The job market is so strong that even if we have a temporary rise in unemployment, it won’t create that much hardship. Inflation is above target but nonetheless at a level Americans found quite tolerable in the past, so if it persists longer than the Fed would like, that won’t be a disaster. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the post pandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/18/opinion/jobs-inflation-economy.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230519&instance_id=92953&nl=the-morning&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=133346&te=1&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4
2023may10. US inflation below 5% for first time in two years.
2023may06A7pm.  President US inflation below 5% for first time in two years Biden’s signature climate law appears to be encouraging more investment in American manufacturing than initially expected, powering what’s expected to be a surge in new factory jobs and domestic clean energy technologies, according to independent forecasters.     If the boom in new battery factories, wind and solar farms, electric vehicle plants and other investments is sustained, the law could prove even more effective than administration officials had hoped at reducing the fossil fuel emissions that are dangerously heating the planet.
from 2023may meeting
2023may03W11pm.  Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday in the tenth straight move in their fight against rapid inflation — but they also opened the door to a possible pause in rate increases.     Central bankers lifted rates to a range of 5 percent to 5.25 percent, a level they have not reached since the summer of 2007. The move capped the fastest series of rate increases since the 1980s, as the central bank led by Chair Jerome H. Powell attempts to slow the economy and weigh down price increases. 
2023may03W11pm.  Ten congressional liberals, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), called on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell to halt the central bank’s plans to raise interest rates, writing in a letter Monday that higher borrowing costs could force millions of Americans out of work.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/03/fed-rate-hike-powell-banks/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F39e728e%2F6452cb7ca61bab12f74f6b46%2F598b051fae7e8a68162a1429%2F10%2F54%2F6452cb7ca61bab12f74f6b46 
2023may02T1pm.  Job openings in March fell to 9.6 million, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday, the lowest level in two years and a further indication that the once red-hot labor market is gradually cooling. The total number of open jobs per available unemployed worker, a ratio that the Federal Reserve has been watching as it tries to tame rapid inflation, decreased slightly to 1.6, the lowest level since October 2021.    Layoffs, which have remained historically low outside of some big-name companies in the tech sector, rose to 1.8 million in March. The number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs was relatively unchanged. 
2023may02T10am. When the Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow, it’s expected to discuss the fallout of this year’s banking scare before raising interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank’s “troubles will loom over this week’s rate decision,” per our colleague Rachel Siegel.     “Chair Jerome H. Powell will need to figure out — and then explain to the public — how much the sudden caution in the financial sector will aid the fight against inflation. If banks get more reluctant to loan money, that will curb demand in a way that mimics an interest rate hike.”     https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/02/biden-calls-debt-limit-meeting/?utm_campaign=wp_politics_am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_politics&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F39e3687%2F6450ec33a61bab12f74bbf96%2F598b051fae7e8a68162a1429%2F18%2F69%2F6450ec33a61bab12f74bbf96
upated2023apr28F11am.   ...while the labor market may no longer be boiling over, it is still at an uncomfortably high simmer. The wage figures released Friday tell a similar story: Pay is no longer rising as rapidly as it was in the middle of last year, but it is still rising much faster than before the pandemic.     Fed officials were already expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week, and the wage data released Friday erased any remaining doubts, argued Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights.     “If any Fed officials were wavering on a May rate hike,” he wrote in a note to clients, the wage data “will likely push them to support at least one more hike.”     Wage growth is a delicate issue for the Fed. Faster pay gains have helped workers, particularly those at the bottom of the earnings ladder, keep up with rapidly rising prices. And most economists, inside and outside the Fed, say wage growth has not been a dominant cause of the recent bout of high inflation.
upated2023apr27R7pm.  U.S. Economy Continues to Grow, but More Slowly. Gross domestic product increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter as consumer spending remained robust despite higher interest rates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/business/economy/gdp-q1-economy.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230427&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=91739846&segment_id=131483&user_id=c169c5df23b5bd14a95e704d648953e4





upated2023apr24M11am.  
Compare to China GDP per capita $12,00 in "Political Consensus"


US citizens remain preeminent statistically in the world order. 


 




. 

upated2023apr12W11am.  A reminder of the high cost of weak bank oversight.     That turmoil is a reminder of the high costs of ineffective bank regulation, which has been a recurring problem in the U.S.    An inflation rate that remains near 4 percent for an extended period [over the 2% target] is problematic for several reasons. It cuts into buying power and gives people reason to expect that inflation may stay high for years. They will then ask their employers for higher wages, potentially causing a spiral in which companies increase their prices to pay for the raises and inflation drifts even higher. Today’s tight job market, with unemployment near its lowest level since the 1960s, adds to these risks. The economy still seems to be running hotter than is sustainable.    Some Fed officials favored a quarter-point increase, which would be identical to the increase at the Fed’s meeting last month. Others preferred a half-point increase, in response to the worrisome recent inflation data     In addition to slowing the economy, higher interest rates depress the value of many financial assets.    When customers became worried that the banks would no longer have enough money to return their deposits, a classic bank run ensued. It led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and others remain in jeopardy.    If Fed officials continue raising their benchmark rate, they risk damaging the balance sheets of more banks and causing new bank runs. That’s why a half-point increase now seems less likely.
upated2023apr28F10pm.  Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision, who led the review, said the US central bank should toughen its rules in response to what it had learned from SVB's demise.     "Federal Reserve supervisors failed to take forceful enough action," he said, pointing to regulatory standards that were "too low", supervision that did not work with urgency, and risks to the wider system posed by troubles at a mid-size bank that Fed policies had missed.      "Following SVB's failure, we must strengthen the Federal Reserve's supervision and regulation," he said.     The head of the Federal Reserve, chairman Jerome Powell, said he welcomed the "thorough and self-critical report".
The U.S. government announced Sunday night that all depositors at the failed Silicon Valley Bank would have access to all their money on Monday morning.    Separately, the Federal Reserve announced that it was creating a new lending facility for the nation’s banks, designed to buttress them against financial risks caused by Friday’s collapse of SVB.    “Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,” a joint statement from the Treasury Department, the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.”
There’s nothing like a bank panic to make for a relaxing weekend. Markets took another header on Friday, as regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest U.S. bank and the biggest to fail since the 2008 crisis. This came days after Silvergate Capital announced it is liquidating its bank. Cracks in the financial system emerge whenever interest rates rise quickly after an easy-credit mania, and the surprise is that it took so long.    The FDIC took over SVB on Friday and may have to collect more bodies by the time the Federal Reserve is done correcting its easy-movey mistakes,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valley-bank-silvergate-capital-markets-fdic-federal-reserve-c66be86a?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
Personal spending, which spans both goods and services, climbed by 1.8 percent in January. That compared to a slight 0.1 percent decline in December, and was more than the 1.4 percent increase that economists had anticipated. Even after adjusting for quick inflation, consumer spending rose at a hearty pace last month.    Whether consumers keep spending in the months ahead is a key question as the Fed ponders its next policy steps. If demand remains robust, it could make it difficult for the economy to slow enough that businesses charge less and inflation eases fully back to normal. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/24/business/economy/inflation-spending-fed.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Business

Jobs. 2023may05. H2o thinks that jobs are the economy foundation. 2023jun02.


Inflation. Core consumer prices for last month rose by 4% from a year earlier, double the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) target level.   It puts further pressure on the central bank to put up its interest rates to help ease the rising cost of living.   This week the BOJ surprised investors by announcing that it would keep rates near zero, despite the increasing cost of everything from food to fuel. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64341733

 

2023May10. Prices for milk, airline tickets and new cars fell in the US last month, helping drive inflation to its lowest rate in two years.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65547974
Rates debate.  Harv thinks that the US should have raised rates sooner, but the number of US jobs was a happiness priority. 
Note more stability in rate changes compared to past decades. Go for another quarter point in April.
On average, Fed policymakers said in December they expect their benchmark interest rate to climb to 5.1% — from 4.625% now — and remain there at least through the end of the year.    
Financial markets are skeptical of that forecast. Many investors are betting that the central bank will soon start cutting interest rates, despite repeated warnings to the contrary from Fed officials. The expectation of lower borrowing costs is one reason the stock and bond markets have rallied in recent weeks.    "The market has a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away," Waller said. "We have a different view, that inflation is not just going to miraculously melt away. It's going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down. And therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer." https://www.npr.org/2023/02/01/1152862301/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-recession-economy
US debt. 2023mar14T10am. 
The biggest jumps in the debt limit were for covid stimulus in both the Trump and Biden administrations. Note the political ease of suspending the ceiling.
People are happy with government promotion of jobs.
“This debate is simple: We want to do the responsible thing, and they want to take the entire American economy hostage to cut Social Security and Medicare,” said the member of Congress, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations. Klain told the lawmaker that the fight could result in substantial political benefits for the Democratic Party. “The point he was making was clear: You can’t negotiate with people who take hostages.”

Harv says, Raise taxes on wealthy to close growing income inequality.

US economy comments ends here.